Monthly Archives: February 2013
Weekend Trading Update. UK Credit Rating Downgrade Sees Cable Tumble.
Hi guys, sorry we had no midweek update this week, but i have been too busy to post one. Anyway here is the weekend trading update. We have had some great price action trading this week, which has given us some great pips.
Cable fell almost 100 pips last night after a downgrade from credit rating agency Moodys. The downgrade is the first in 30 years and sees the UK lose its triple A credit rating. The downgrade means that the UK will have to pay more interest on its borrowing, which will add a bit more to its debt pile, and they may need to do more QE.
We could see cable fall a bit more on Monday, but i think we will see Cable recover from its lows next week, as the downgrade fears are now out of the way, and traders love a bargain, so i think we could see a nice rally on Cable in the coming weeks.
The low for the week on Cable was 15130. I had a price target of 15135 as a long entry, which i took on Thursday. We had a nice rally off that level and we managed to get 134 pips from that trade.
Ozzy Dollar revisited my 10225 level on Thursday. I did say last week that it would revisit that area on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. It almost hit on Wednesday, but finally hit Thursday, so i was a day out. 🙂
We took a nice trade off the 10360 level all the way down to 10262 for 102 pips. I did consider holding the trade overnight for a revisit my 10225 level, but i don’t like holding AUD shorts overnight, as the swap is a killer.
Euro Dollar had been consolidating for most of last week in preparation for this move down, which we traded very successfully. The price hit my short target at 13429 and we took the move down to 13283 for 146 pips. I had been waiting for this move for over a week, and the extended consolidation told me that it would be a pretty decent move. The price typically pushed up from consolidation before moving down very strongly. I did make comment predicting this Euro move on Forex live.
Euro Yen also moved down along with Euro this week, which is no surprise. It was in consolidation yesterday though as was the Euro. We took one small trade on Euro Yen yesterday for 30 pips.
Here is an update on all the trades we took this week.
Monday we took 2 trades on Cable, both short, one at 15475 down to 15440 for 35 pips. We also took it again at 15450 down to 15484 for 34 pips.
Tuesday we took Cable short again at 15484 down to 15424 for 60 pips.
Wednesday was the start of our week really. First trade was Euro Dollar short at 13429 down to 13283 for 146 pips. We also took AUD at 10360 down to 10262 for 102 pips.
Thursday was a pretty crazy day, we took quite a few trades on Thursday. We took Cable long at 15135 up to 15269 for 134 pips. We also took AUD long at 10226 up to 10260 for 34 pips, we also took it again at 10235 up to 10255 for 20 pips. We also took Euro long at 13174 up to 13224 for 50 pips. We also took it short at 13230 back down to 13174 for another 56 pips.
Friday was a quiet day. We took 2 trades one trade which was Euro Yen short at 12349 down to 12319 for 30 pips. The other one was a losing trade on Cable long, which we got hit for 24 pips. It was a silly trade really, and i should not have taken it, but i got greedy. I had been having a very good week, and thought i was invincible. It was not a high probability trade, and i got my ass kicked. It happens sometimes when you are on a roll, you lose a bit of focus and you need a loser to re focus your mind. It worked anyway, i am totally Focused for Monday. 🙂
Total trades for the week 12. Total pips 677.
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Weekend Trading Update. Euro Yen Rallies 230 Pips.
Euro Yen rallied 230 pips on Friday after after a G7 official said that a statement about excessive weakness in the Yen was miss interpreted. The statement was meant to express concern about excessive movements in the Japanese yen, but was interpreted as concern about Yen weakness, which initially saw the Yen strengthen. When the comments were re run with the correct interpretation stressed, we saw Yen weakness return to the market.
The move was very quick, and i don’t chase trades so we did not get in on the move. We did take Euro Dollar long though at 13310, which was helped along by the Yen news. This is typical of Euro Yen moves of late they do seem to drag Euro Dollar higher. Traders tend to see a rally in Euro Yen as a signal to buy Euro Dollar.
Ozzy Dollar was pretty flat on Thursday, but Friday was another pretty strong move down. We may see a retest of the 10225 area on Tuesday or Wednesday, but this depends on what happens tomorrow. The US are on holiday tomorrow so trading volumes are going to be down from the normal Monday volumes, so anything could happen.
Euro Dollar moved down on Thursday and took out the weekly lows, but popped back up on Friday on the back of the bullish Euro Yen move to end the week pretty much where it started.
Cable was moving sideways for most of Thursday and Friday, it moved enough for us to get a couple of nice little trades though.
Here is an update on all the Forex trades we took this week.
Monday was a bit of a funny day, the price action was not brilliant, and we did not get any particularly good set ups, so we took a few scalping trades. I am not going to list them but we took 4 trades for around 40 pips in total.
Tuesday was a much better day. We took AUD long at 10227 up to 10354 for 127 pips. I had been waiting for this trade for a couple of weeks, and i knew it was going to be a decent move up, so i held it overnight to get the full benefit of the move. We also took Cable long at 15575 up to 15640 for 65 pips.
Wednesday we had a nice price action set up on Euro. We took it short at 13506 down to 13468 for 38 pips. We also took the same trade again off 13485 down to 13440 for another 45 pips.
Thursday we took EJ long at 12382 up to 12407 for 25 pips. We also took Cable long at 15490 up to 15549 for 59 pips.
Friday we took Euro dollar long at 13310 up to 13350 for 40 pips. We also took Cable long at 15481 up to 15507 for 26 pips. We also took EJ short at 12519 down to 12475 for 44 pips.
Total trades 13. Total pips 509.
Ozzy Dollar Hits My Target. Cable Weakens. Euro Moves Higher.
Ozzy Dollar hit my price target yesterday so i took it long. Well it actually hit 10226 and my target was 10225 so i was out by 1 pip. 🙂
If you have been reading my posts over the last few updates you will see that I had been targeting this area as a possible long trade for a few weeks now, and it finally hit on Tuesday. I actually entered the trade a little early at 10227 just to be safe, as i knew this was a strong demand area and it may not hit my 25, and that turned out to be the case. The price quickly moved away from that area so i knew it was a good trade, so i let it run rather that taking a logical exit.
Ozzy had been moving down towards that area for a while now, so a big move up was on the cards. As i had waited for the trade for a while i let it run overnight to get the full benefit of the move. I don’t mind holding Ozzy longs overnight as i get paid a good chunk on the rollover. I would not hold a short position overnight though unless it was unavoidable.
I closed the trade earlier today as the move seemed to have stalled a little, but i managed to get out at 10354 for 127 pips. I don’t mind waiting for a week or so for a move like that. I think it could have a bit more left in it, but i am very happy with my pips.
Cable has been moving down since Monday, and was punished further today by Mervyn King who gave a Draghi like press conference on the state of the UK economy. I have a price target on Cable of 15270 so its got a bit further to go yet. I think we will see a bit of a rally first though, before a move down to that level.
Euro has been recovering some of its losses since the Mario Draghi press conference, and peaked today at 13518. I took it short at 13506 so i missed the top by 12 pips, which is a pretty big miss by my standards. The move down was helped by some Euro negative news by the ECB saying Euro strength will hurt the recovery of the smaller countries in Europe. I took it down to 13468 for 38 pips. I re entered the same trade at 13485 down to 13440 for another 45 pips.
Euro Yen has been up and down this week trading in a nice range. We have had a couple of nice trades on that this week. First trade was on Tuesday at 12680 down to 12560 for 120 pips. We took it short again today at 12620 down to 12570 for 50 pips. The good thing about EJ at the moment is it does yield a lot of pips when you manage to trade it. You need to have a larger stop though on that one at the moment, as its very volatile, so you can get stopped out if you are too tight.
I will give a full update on the weeks trading activities at the end of the week. If you are trading this week have a good one. 🙂
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Weekend Update. Draghi Press Conference Sees Euro Crash 200 Pips.
Euro Dollar
Mario Draghi held a pretty bearish press conference on Thursday which saw the Euro crash 200 pips. Draghi press conferences are generally upbeat which more often than not sees the Euro rally, but he was more realistic in his comments which made traders realize that the Euro problems are still a long way from fixed.
It was a complete turnaround from the start of the week when everyone was talking about a move up to 140, now everyone is talking about a move down to 130. It really annoys me that these so called experts can change their mind like the wind an no one seems to care what they said yesterday.
This is why i do not trade news or fundamentals, its so hit and miss. Monday and Wednesday you could have been adding to your Euro longs for the move up to 140 and Thursday you would have been wiped out, and are now looking for shorts. Until some expert comes out and says its going to 140 again. Technical trading is a far more reliable way to trade in my opinion. Just trade what you see not what you hear. Its a sad fact but the Forex markets are so manipulated these days and the manipulation is at the highest level.
Euro Yen
We saw a 300 pip move down on Euro Yen on Thursday after the Draghi press conference. This move was compounded on Friday by Japan’s finance minister ASO who said the pace of JPY weakening has been too fast. A Japanese ministry of finance official then added 15 mins later that ASO meant to say JPY fall was fast paced and not unexpected.
Cable
Cable rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday after a press conference by incoming governor of the bank of England Mark Carney who said that the UK should do more to support the recovery, and when pressed to say whether more quantitative easing would have the desired effect, the incoming governor said, matter-of-factly, that Bank of Canada research had concluded the policy was having diminishing returns, especially in the US. So he is not a big fan of QE which if stopped will see Cable much higher than it is now.
AUD
AUD rallied strongly on Friday after a bit of profit taking from the move down this week. It did not hit my long entry target but i am sure it will get there next week at some point. I did have an interim long entry target at 12051 which missed by a pip or two which was unfortunate. If i was awake i would probably have taken the trade long, but it happened in the Asian session and i was sound asleep. 🙂
OK here is the trading update.
Thursday we took EJ short at 12744 down to 12700 for 44 pips.
Friday we took USD JPY long 9220 up to 9260 for 40 pips. We also took Cable short at 15805 down to 15885 for 20 pips. We also too Euro long at 13365 up to 134 for 35 pips.
Update for the week. 9 trades, 356 pips profit.