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Monthly Archives: February 2013

Ozzy Dollar And Cable Move Lower, Yen Moves Higher

Groundhog day again. Ozzy and Cable are moving lower and Yen is moving higher.

Yen pairs moved to new highs again in the Asian session but have been retracing for most of the day. The Yen is very weak at the moment and the selling sees no sign of letting up any time soon.

AUD made a little up move on Monday but weak numbers out last night have seen it make another leg down today.

I did mention in my post on Friday that Ozzy would continue lower this week with a target of 10225, which could get hit tomorrow or Friday if the slide continues. Unemployment figures are out for Ozzy later this evening so that should see some action in the pair.

Euro continued its move down on Monday from the sell off on Friday. We saw a strong pullback yesterday on the back of comments out of Europe saying the Euro is not high enough to warrant action from the ECB. That pushed the price up significantly but we have seen it slide again today.

The ECB rate decision is out tomorrow so we are unlikely to see much movement in Euro Dollar until that news is out. The consensus is for rates to remain the same. I think if we see the Euro above 140 we will see a rate cut, but until that happens i think they will leave rates on hold.

Cable was doing OK on Monday until poor numbers came out that saw it make a sharp move lower. I think Cable has a got a bit further to go yet before we see it come back. There is talk of QE and a possible downgrade that is weighing on Cable.

I would just like to state that i do not trade fundamentals or news. I am merely commenting on the pairs i trade to try and give you an overview of what is happening. It makes no difference to me what news comes out and when. I only trade price action. I trade what the chart is telling me to trade.

OK trades so far this week are as follows.

Monday we took Cable long at 15696 up to 15744 for 48 pips. We also took AUD short at 10437 down to 10400 for 37 pips.

Tuesday we took EJ long at 12410 up to 10480 for 70 pips.

Today we took Euro long at 13515 up to 13545 for 30 pips. We also took AUD long at 10297 up to 10329 for 32 pips.

If you are in the markets this week have a good week. 🙂

If you wish to learn how to trade Forex please consider my Forex training course.

Trading Update – Euro Dollar Breaks 137. BNP Paribas Target 140.

Euro Dollar yesterday broke through the 137 level printing a high at 13710 and closing the session at down 70 pips at 13640. Yesterday BNP Paribas put a price target of 140 on Euro Dollar.

The Euro currency is very strong at the moment so we could see a test of that level in the coming weeks but i think in the longer term the Euro will weaken against the Dollar as the fed scale back on QE. Europe may also step in with a rate cut if Euro continues its upward trend as a strong Euro will hurt the recovery in Europe.

There was a rumor circulating yesterday that Goldman Sachs had closed its long position on Euro Dollar. If you read my post from the 12th Jan you will remember that they put a price target of 137 on Euro Dollar. Well according to rumors yesterday that position has been closed. A 70 pip drop from the highs could also back that up. I closed my Euro long at 96 so i missed the top by 14 pips but i went short at 13700 which more than made up for the 14 pips. 🙂

Cable made a decent rally this week, but more talk of a downgrade saw the price crash 180 pips yesterday. I had a price target on Cable to go short that unfortunately did not get hit, but we had a couple of decent trades on Cable this week so that’s OK.

Euro Yen continues to push higher which i think is contributing to the Euro Dollar rise, they seem to be feeding off each other at the moment. There was a crazy move on Euro Yen yesterday, the price pushed down 100 pips and then went back up 200 pips an hour later. You don’t see moves like that very often and it was clearly market manipulation, which caught a lot of short sellers out.

AUD USD pushed down this week but we did see a little recovery on Friday that we managed to get in on. My longer term view on AUD is bearish as the currency is still pretty high compared to where it usually trades, so it could go down quite a bit over the next few weeks. I have a longer term price target of 10225 on AUD, so a bit further to go down yet.

Please note: that my views on these pairs are purely my opinion based on the price action i can read on the charts. My views are not a recommendation to trade. What i do is far more complicated than just picking targets. You need to be fully conversant with my methods before you can trade these targets.

Trades for this week.

Sorry i did not give a midweek update this week but i have been really busy so did not have the time. I did not take as many trades this week as normal but i still had a good week.

Monday. Cable long at 15713 up to 15742 for 29 pips. AUD long at 10386 up to 10406 for 20 pips. EJ short at 12203 down to 12177 for 26 pips. EJ short at 12173 closed at 12184 for 11 pips loss.

Tuesday. Euro long at 13423 up to 13473 for 50 pips.

Wednesday. AUD long at 10404 up to 10428 for 24 pips.

Thursday. Cable short at 15833 down to 15813 for 20 pips.

Friday. Euro long at 13608 up to 13665 for 57 pips. Cable long at 15810 up to 15840 for 30 pips. AUD long at 10363 up to 10423 for 60 pips. Euro long at 13667 up to 13696 29 pips. Euro short at 13700 down to 13660 for 40 pips.

Total trades for the week 12. Total pips for the week 378. Not a great week for me pips wise but still good. One loser this week which does happen from time to time.