Monthly Archives: March 2013
Weekend Forex Trading Update. Cyprus Deal Done, Lets Make Some Money.
Well the Cyprus deal has been done, and the savers have been taxed, so hopefully next week we can make some money.
As i expected would be the case the account holders with deposits exceeding 100,000 euros have been taxed. Why upset the many when you can upset the few. It makes more sense to do it the way it has been done.
So now its out of the way, all as we need to worry about now is the rest of Europe. The Italian elections seem to be weighing on the Euro at the moment, so once that is sorted out we could have a bit of a rally in Euro, before the next sustained move down.
This week has been one of the worst weeks for trading i have seen of late. Monday was OK, Tuesday was pretty much a write off, and Friday was the same. No trading opportunities either Tuesday or Friday. A trade on EJ that i opened on Monday hit target in the Asian session, so that was officially a trade for Tuesday, but apart from that i had nothing.
Here are the trades i took this week.
Monday i took 3 trades for a total of 97 pips. I took EJ long at 12307 up to 12327 for 20 pips. I took it long again at 12033 up to 12090 for 57 pips. I also took Euro Dollar long at 12859 up to 12879 for 20 pips.
Tuesday i closed a trade automatically in the Asian session for 33 pips. It was an EJ trade that i opened long at 12111 up to 12144. Apart from that trade i had nothing.
Wednesday i took 4 trades for a total for 160 pips. I took EJ long again at 12055 up to 12575 for 20 pips. I also took Euro short at 12845 down to 12785 for 60 pips. I also took Euro long at 12756 up to 12776 for 20 pips. I also took EJ long at 12010 up to 12070 for 60 pips.
Thursday i managed 3 trades for 103 pips. I took EJ long at 11985 up to 12038 for 53 pips. I also took Euro long at 12757 up to 12777 for 20 pips. I also took Euro short at 12844 down to 12814 for 30 pips.
Friday i did not get a trade, this was mainly down to the fact that it was good Friday, and most traders were on holiday so the price action was non existent.
Total trades for the week 12. Total pips 393.
High Probability Forex Trading Strategies.
Ok, lets talk about high probability Forex trading strategies, and how they can improve your trading. Taking trades based on high probability set ups, will take your trading to a new level of success, and turn you from a Forex loser into a Forex winner.
High probability trading is about being able to predict the outcome of your trade to such a degree, that the odds of a successful outcome, far outweigh the odds of an unsuccessful one.
I am a high probability trader. On a good day i will take 4 or 5 trades, on a bad day i will take none. Now if you ask the average Forex trader what a good day and a bad day means to them, you will probably hear something like this. A good day would consist of taking around 20 trades, with 12 winners and 8 losers. A bad day would be taking around 15 trades with 12 losers and 3 winners. I did not take any trades today. That was a bad day for me, as i did not make any money. I did not lose any, but i did not make any. A bad day for me, is not about how much i lost today, its about how much i did not make today.
Its very rare that i lose money in the markets. If i do have a losing trade, and i do get them, there will usually be at least one or two more opportunities that day for me to close the day in profit. How do do it? Why do i get so many winners, and so few losers? Its very simple, i only take the trades that i know will be successful. Ok so know one can predict the future to the point where a successful trade is guaranteed i know, as major market moving news could be released, or a world war could break out. But baring major market moving news, the outcome of the trade is going to be successful with the highest probability possible. I only trade when the odds are stacked significantly in my favor.
So how do you identify high probability Forex trading strategies? I am not going to go into detail about what i do and how i trade, as that is for my Forex training course, but what i will say is you need to understand the rules of the game. If you can imagine Forex trading as a game with 10 players, and each player has a belief about what is going to happen to the price, some traders think it will go up, and some traders think it will go down. Each trader will trade either up or down on the basis of what they believe the price will do next. If 9 traders think the price will go down and they sell the market, the chances are the price will go down. So if 9 out of 10 traders are selling, why would you want to buy?
The object of the game is to identify who is buying, and who is selling, and why. This is what i do very successfully. By knowing with the highest probability who is buying and who is selling, i can predict the future direction of price. Once i have worked out where the price is going, i just need to enter the trade either long or short, at the best possible entry price. This is what i do every day, and this is what i teach people to do. Once you have established the direction of price, then you just need to get into the move at the best possible level. I am not talking about trend trading, or chasing after a train that has left the station, i am talking about getting into a move before the move has even started. That is what i define as high probability trading.
If you wish to learn more about my high probability Forex trading strategies, please drop me an email or give me a call. Happy trading. 🙂
Learning How To trade Forex Using Price Action.
I cannot stress enough the importance of learning how to trade Forex using price action. The majority of Forex traders are using indicators to give them trading signals which i believe is the wrong way to trade Forex. Its not only me that thinks this way, the statistics speak for themselves, and 95% of Forex traders do lose money over the longer term.
I get a lot of comments from people who cannot get their head around the fact that i have so many winning trades. Its not hard to get the same results as i am getting if you trade as i do. My trading style relies on the fact that i wait until the odds are in my favor before i trade. I class myself as a high probability trader. I take 2 to 3 high probability trades per day, and more often than not i am successful. I could easily take 20 or 30 trades a day, but i would not be getting the results that i am currently getting.
To be successful in Forex trading you have to have a complete understanding of the charts. You have to be able to look at a chart and know exactly what is happening and why. Only when you have this understanding can you be consistently profitable. Please don’t kid yourself into thinking that you know what is happening on the chart when you don’t. This is a fundamental mistake that a lot of Forex traders make. They cannot admit to themselves that they do not fully understand the chart. If you are failing to make money, week in week out, its not a bad run, or bad luck, or any other excuse you can find, its because you are not completely understanding Forex trading, and you are entering your trades at the wrong time. When you can to admit to yourself that you have a problem with your trading, you can then start to do something about it. Some traders will go on for years and years losing money, but not admitting to themselves that they do not know how to trade consistently.
Learning how to trade Forex using price action is all about the chart. I am not talking about stochastics or macd or trend trading or moving average crossovers, or momentum etc etc. I am talking about price action, and spotting the moves in the market before they happen. If you understand the price action as i do, you can take advantage of these moves by getting into your trades before they happen. This is what high probability trading is all about. Entering the market at the correct time before the move. This is the only way to make money from trading Forex. Forex trading is pretty much black and white, as far as i am concerned, you either know what is happening or you don’t. There are very few grey areas in how i trade.
So if you are reading this and thinking yes you are right, i am struggling with my trading and i need help, then you are on the road to becoming a successful Forex trader. If you cannot admit that you need help, then you will continue to lose your money.
If you are ready to admit that you need help with your trading, and you wish to take the next step to becoming a profitable trader, then please feel free to contact me. I offer Forex training to traders from all over the world. You can contact me on UK 07939 427000. Or drop me an email and i will call you back if you are in the UK. Have a great trading day. 🙂
Weekend Update. Euro Rallies On Speculation Of Cyprus Resolution.
The Cyprus problem is still with us, but Euro pairs rallied today on speculation that a resolution to the bailout problem would be forthcoming.
Discussions are currently on going and the latest word on the street, is that they will have a deal either tonight, or at some point over the weekend.
They need to find approximately 6 billion Euros for their share of the EU bailout proposal, and the idea of taxing bank deposits to get that money did not go down very well with the Russians, or Cypriot savers. So this i feel is the problem. They need to tax deposits in such a way as to keep the majority happy. I believe the solution will be to take a higher tax from the most wealthy individuals, thus upsetting a few that can well afford the tax, rather than hitting the many that cannot.
I have had a good trading week. I did get a losing trade on Euro Yen yesterday which cost me 30 pips, but i more than made up for that today with 3 Yen trades for 129 pips.
Here is the update for the week.
Monday i took 2 trades, both on Euro Dollar. I took it long at 12935 up to 12970 for 35 pips. I also took it short at 12993 down to 12950 for 43 pips.
Tuesday did not look at all promising at the start, and i did not think i would get a trade as the markets were going sideways in a pretty tight range. The price action was very poor. We did get a bit of movement late on, which gave me 2 long trades. I took Euro long at 12846 up to 12886 for 40 pips. I also took EJ long at 12186 up to 12250 for 64 pips.
Wednesday i had 3 little trades. One Cable long at 15039 up to 15070 for 31 pips. I also took EJ short 12392 down to 12362 for 30 pips. I then took EJ short again at 12445 down to 12414 for 31 pips.
Thursday i took EJ long at 12396 which i closed out at 12366 for a 30 pip loss. 🙁 I then took EJ long again at 12310 up to 12349 which gave me 39 pips. I then took it long again at 12274 up to 12311 which gave me 37 pips.
Losing trades are not nice, but they do happen from time to time, but if you have a good understanding of the markets you can quickly recover from a losing trade. It used to really bother me when i had losing trades, but because i have complete confidence in what i do, i know i can recover the lost pips easily.
Today was a good day. I could have had 300 pips plus today if i had held on to my long Yen positions, but at the time we were in a strong downtrend, and i thought it prudent to bank my pips just in case the Yen pairs continued the move down.
The first trade of the day was Euro Yen long at 12185 up to 12225 for 40 pips. This trade did go against me initially, but i was confident it would be a winning trade so i held onto it and added to it at 12156. I closed that position at 12225 for 69 pips. I also took at little trade on Dollar Yen at 94.30 which i closed at 94.50 for 20 pips.
Total trades for the week 13. 12 winners 1 loser. Total pips 449.
Don’t forget, if you want to learn how to trade Forex the right way, please consider my Forex training course. It will be the best investment in the Forex business you will ever make, i can guarantee that. 🙂