Show Buttons
Share On Facebook
Share On Twitter
Share On Google Plus
Share On Linkdin
Share On Pinterest
Share On Reddit
Share On Stumbleupon
Hide Buttons

Category Archives: Guest Articles

Will The Fed Tolerate A Stronger USD For Longer? – Credit Agricole.

Given that US financial conditions have tightened of late, investors will also want to know if the Fed will tolerate further tightening (eg, USD appreciation). The Fed should deliver a 25bp rate hike but may keep its economic and policy outlook little changed, opting to wait for more economic data and details on the upcoming Trump stimulus. At the same time, Yellen may signal willingness to tolerate further tightening in US financial conditions in view of the latest rebound in US inflation expectations and given the resilience of risk sentiment at home and abroad.

C81.PNG

Given the latest USD underperformance, the bigger surprise for the FX markets could be indications that the Fed would tolerate higher UST yields and a stronger USD for longer, as well as any potential revisions to the 2018 dot-plot to reflect the recent drop in the unemployment rate below the Fed’s NAIRU.

This could help USD regain some lost ground vs commodity and risk-correlated G10 currencies if further tightening in global conditions starts eroding market risk sentiment. AUD could be vulnerable to potential disappointments from the upcoming data out of Australia and China. We keep open our short AUD/USD trade.*

The BoE, the SNB and the Norges Bank will also meet next week but should keep policy unchanged. That said, the MPC could see the latest disappointing UK data as confirmation of its cautious macro outlook and reiterate it will keep policy very accommodative in the face of surging cost–push inflation. This could keep the headwinds in place for GBP against USD. EUR/GBP could start consolidating after the recent sell-off following the Italian referendum and December ECB meeting.

Forex Volume Set To Rise. USD JPY To Stabilize – Credit Agricole.

Article Courtesy of Credit Agricole.

The views expressed in this article are the opinion of Credit Agricole FX market analysts. Please feel free to share.

The holiday season is in full swing and for some this may mean that markets will settle down as liquidity dries up in the coming weeks.

Our evidence suggests that Forex volume tends to go up in August, however, data releases and events can trigger renewed spikes of short-end vol across G10. It remains to be seen whether the combined effect of the multitude of idiosyncratic shocks will be sufficient to fuel a broader risk off move. Even so, we have added to our portfolio a long XAU/CHF trade as a risk-off hedge. Another interesting strategy is to identify cheap FX volatility to benefit from accentuated market moves on the back of event risks and thin market liquidity ahead.

Next week’s data calendar is laden with data releases like US non-farm payrolls, and events like the BoE Inflation report and the RBA policy meeting.

The BoE inflation report may struggle to exceed the dovish market expectations ahead of the August inflation report, and that could help GBP consolidate more broadly. We remain long GBP/CHF going into the release. Investors are looking for another solid US payroll and earnings data.

JPY should remain in the spotlight ahead of the announcement of Abe’s fiscal stimulus next week. We expect Japanese stocks to recover some more as a result and that should help USD/JPY stabilize.

Ahead of the RBA, markets see a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut. We also see a non negligible risk of policy action and stick to our tactical AUD/USD short. The FX options markets do not seem to be pricing in a significant scope for spot moves making AUD short-term gamma an interesting buy as well.

That said, we remain bulls on AUD/NZD over the longer-term, and expect the upcoming NZ unemployment and inflation expectations data to fuel rate cut expectations ahead of the August RBNZ meeting, and keep the cross supported. Potential disappointments from Chinese PMI data could keep both antipodean currencies under pressure against USD.

credit agricole

3 Critical Tips For Choosing A Forex Broker

The importance of choosing the right forex broker is often underestimated. New traders with dreams of getting rich quick often look for features that are not important, and can even do more harm than good. In this article, we describe the three most important things to look for when choosing a forex broker.

1. Choose a broker who is subject to strong forex regulation.

The importance of this cannot be understated. Unregulated forex brokers are able to take advantage of you in ways you do not even realize. A prime example is slippage. Slippage is the difference between the price your trade is executed at, verses the price that was quoted when you placed the order. Slippage is a normal part of trading, because prices fluctuate all the time, and can easily move in the short time between when you place an order, and when it executes. However, unregulated brokers can pass the unfavorable slippage on to you, but keep the favorable slippage for themselves. This increases your transactions costs, and the effect can be significant over time, especially if you are a scalper.

The CFTC & NFA have arguably the strictest forex regulation in the world, and they audit their brokers regularly to make sure that slippage practices are neutral. This is just one of many ways that forex regulation can protect you as a trader.

2. Choose a broker who obeys the law.

This may seem obvious. However, it may surprise you to know that as of May 2015 there are only two forex brokers left in the United States who have never been fined by the regulators. The rest have been fined or banned from doing further business. Even in the face of strong regulation and regular audits, forex brokers still try to get away with cheating their clients. Do you want this kind of broker handling your money? Of course not. If you screen for United States forex brokers from this broker review page, you can easily see which brokers have been fined, and which have a clean regulatory record.

3. Choose a broker with low transaction costs.

Transaction costs are a lot lower than they used to be, and you may think this does not matter much to your trading anymore. If so, you are mistaken, and the following example illustrates why:
Say your starting account balance is $20,000. You have a simple trading system with a 30 pip stop loss and a 30 pip take profit level. You leverage 10:1 and you win 55% of your trades. Broker A offers a spread + commission of 2.5 pips, and Broker B offers a spread + commissions on only 0.7 pips. You make 450 roundtrip trades per year, which is just under two trades per day. The following chart shows the results after one year:

tips for chosing a Forex broker

The chart shows that with Broker A:
• 83% of your gross profits get lost to transaction costs
• Your net profit for the year would be $4,500 or 22%
With Broker B:
• Only 23% of your gross profits get lost to transaction costs
• Your net profit for the year would be $20,700, or 104%

In this example, you are clearly better off with Broker B. The difference in transaction costs will have the greatest impact to your trading if you trade frequently, or have a narrow trading edge.

This article was kindly provided by Forex Scam Alerts, who provide advice about the risks of forex trading and how to avoid scams.

If you enjoyed this article, and think it would benefit other traders, please like it on Facebook, tweet it on Twitter, or bookmark it using one of the social bookmarking buttons below.

Thanks for stopping by, and have a great day. 🙂

Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)

This article was kindly provided by Leonardo Barata of analyticalvsa.com who is an active VSA trader. VSA is a trading method that is favored by many traders. I do not trade VSA myself but you may find it interesting. If you like this article please share it. This article is for entertainment value only, and is not a recommendation to trade VSA.

What is volume spread analysis?

Volume Spread Analysis is a methodology originated in early 1900s, by Richard D. Wyckoff (1873-1934), a successful Wall Street trader and later known as the man who made a fortune in the 1929 market crash. Other very successful traders such as Richard Ney would use this methodology as well, only under a different name. This methodology, which is also called the Wyckoff method, was put in more modern terms by Tom Williams, a former syndicate trader based in London, in the 1960s. For the deep insights on the markets that it provides, and the fact that it can be applied to virtually any liquid market, VSA made a name for itself in trading communities.

Understanding VSA.

To understand what VSA is about, we must first understand who are the people who are making money in the markets, and how are they doing it. Like in any other business, there are specialists: some traders specialize in energy futures, others may specialize in the Japanese Yen pairs, others day-trading forex or stocks, and so on. And who are them? These are institutional traders, pit traders, syndicate traders and market-makers, which make a living speculating on the markets. If only we could know what those specialists are doing, then we could trade almost anything without having to do all the fundamental analysis and without looking at all the factors that influence the prices. Well, it turns out we can, and this was exactly Wyckoff’s breakthrough!

The role of volume.

The quantity that represents the activity in the market and is widely available (though not widely used impressively) is the volume. And one thing about the traders who consistently make money in the markets over the years, is that they’ve been able to accumulate a lot of it, and will make large trades to earn a significant amount of money for them. So the volume is the starting point of our analysis, and will show if there is a significant activity (or lack of) in the market, which will be very important to determine what the professionals (smart money) are doing.

Spread’s importance.

But Volume Spread Analysis as the name implies, not only uses volume but also the spread (bar’s high – low). The bar’s spread gives clues as to what type of activity is happening: for example, a low-spread up bar with high volume, indicates there was a lot of selling by the professionals and buying by the public: they prevented the price from going upper by dumping their positions in the market, which the public was happy to absorb. Another example: if there was an widespread down bar with high volume, and the next bars are up, it means there was actually buying on that down bar. Why would the prices go up if that was true selling? The smart money uses the public euphoria to dump or to open their positions, as not to turn the prices against themselves.

Charts examples:

accumulation

The end of the 2008 stocks bear market: Right before the bear market ended, there was accumulation (professional buying) evident in Dow Jones Industrial Average and other indexes. Signals of distribution were also evident before the bear market started in 2008.

The gold top: right before the bear market in gold, and after all the buying euphoria by the public, gold finally collapsed after signs of heavy distribution.

distribution

Learn more and get VSA indicators on our volume spread analysis website.

About the author: Leonardo Barata is a forex and stocks VSA trader and developer.