Tag Archives: bearish
Weekend Update. Draghi Press Conference Sees Euro Crash 200 Pips.
Euro Dollar
Mario Draghi held a pretty bearish press conference on Thursday which saw the Euro crash 200 pips. Draghi press conferences are generally upbeat which more often than not sees the Euro rally, but he was more realistic in his comments which made traders realize that the Euro problems are still a long way from fixed.
It was a complete turnaround from the start of the week when everyone was talking about a move up to 140, now everyone is talking about a move down to 130. It really annoys me that these so called experts can change their mind like the wind an no one seems to care what they said yesterday.
This is why i do not trade news or fundamentals, its so hit and miss. Monday and Wednesday you could have been adding to your Euro longs for the move up to 140 and Thursday you would have been wiped out, and are now looking for shorts. Until some expert comes out and says its going to 140 again. Technical trading is a far more reliable way to trade in my opinion. Just trade what you see not what you hear. Its a sad fact but the Forex markets are so manipulated these days and the manipulation is at the highest level.
Euro Yen
We saw a 300 pip move down on Euro Yen on Thursday after the Draghi press conference. This move was compounded on Friday by Japan’s finance minister ASO who said the pace of JPY weakening has been too fast. A Japanese ministry of finance official then added 15 mins later that ASO meant to say JPY fall was fast paced and not unexpected.
Cable
Cable rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday after a press conference by incoming governor of the bank of England Mark Carney who said that the UK should do more to support the recovery, and when pressed to say whether more quantitative easing would have the desired effect, the incoming governor said, matter-of-factly, that Bank of Canada research had concluded the policy was having diminishing returns, especially in the US. So he is not a big fan of QE which if stopped will see Cable much higher than it is now.
AUD
AUD rallied strongly on Friday after a bit of profit taking from the move down this week. It did not hit my long entry target but i am sure it will get there next week at some point. I did have an interim long entry target at 12051 which missed by a pip or two which was unfortunate. If i was awake i would probably have taken the trade long, but it happened in the Asian session and i was sound asleep. 🙂
OK here is the trading update.
Thursday we took EJ short at 12744 down to 12700 for 44 pips.
Friday we took USD JPY long 9220 up to 9260 for 40 pips. We also took Cable short at 15805 down to 15885 for 20 pips. We also too Euro long at 13365 up to 134 for 35 pips.
Update for the week. 9 trades, 356 pips profit.
Trading Update – Euro Dollar Breaks 137. BNP Paribas Target 140.
Euro Dollar yesterday broke through the 137 level printing a high at 13710 and closing the session at down 70 pips at 13640. Yesterday BNP Paribas put a price target of 140 on Euro Dollar.
The Euro currency is very strong at the moment so we could see a test of that level in the coming weeks but i think in the longer term the Euro will weaken against the Dollar as the fed scale back on QE. Europe may also step in with a rate cut if Euro continues its upward trend as a strong Euro will hurt the recovery in Europe.
There was a rumor circulating yesterday that Goldman Sachs had closed its long position on Euro Dollar. If you read my post from the 12th Jan you will remember that they put a price target of 137 on Euro Dollar. Well according to rumors yesterday that position has been closed. A 70 pip drop from the highs could also back that up. I closed my Euro long at 96 so i missed the top by 14 pips but i went short at 13700 which more than made up for the 14 pips. 🙂
Cable made a decent rally this week, but more talk of a downgrade saw the price crash 180 pips yesterday. I had a price target on Cable to go short that unfortunately did not get hit, but we had a couple of decent trades on Cable this week so that’s OK.
Euro Yen continues to push higher which i think is contributing to the Euro Dollar rise, they seem to be feeding off each other at the moment. There was a crazy move on Euro Yen yesterday, the price pushed down 100 pips and then went back up 200 pips an hour later. You don’t see moves like that very often and it was clearly market manipulation, which caught a lot of short sellers out.
AUD USD pushed down this week but we did see a little recovery on Friday that we managed to get in on. My longer term view on AUD is bearish as the currency is still pretty high compared to where it usually trades, so it could go down quite a bit over the next few weeks. I have a longer term price target of 10225 on AUD, so a bit further to go down yet.
Please note: that my views on these pairs are purely my opinion based on the price action i can read on the charts. My views are not a recommendation to trade. What i do is far more complicated than just picking targets. You need to be fully conversant with my methods before you can trade these targets.
Trades for this week.
Sorry i did not give a midweek update this week but i have been really busy so did not have the time. I did not take as many trades this week as normal but i still had a good week.
Monday. Cable long at 15713 up to 15742 for 29 pips. AUD long at 10386 up to 10406 for 20 pips. EJ short at 12203 down to 12177 for 26 pips. EJ short at 12173 closed at 12184 for 11 pips loss.
Tuesday. Euro long at 13423 up to 13473 for 50 pips.
Wednesday. AUD long at 10404 up to 10428 for 24 pips.
Thursday. Cable short at 15833 down to 15813 for 20 pips.
Friday. Euro long at 13608 up to 13665 for 57 pips. Cable long at 15810 up to 15840 for 30 pips. AUD long at 10363 up to 10423 for 60 pips. Euro long at 13667 up to 13696 29 pips. Euro short at 13700 down to 13660 for 40 pips.
Total trades for the week 12. Total pips for the week 378. Not a great week for me pips wise but still good. One loser this week which does happen from time to time.
US Holiday Trading. 2 Trades Today 60 Pips Profit.
Today was a bank holiday in the US so there was very little activity in the US trading session today.
We managed to get 2 nice trades this morning though, for 60 pips profit.
The first trade was a Euro Dollar long entry at 12939, the exit was at 12973 for 33 pips.
The second trade of the day which was almost the same time as our Euro trade was EJ long at 10121, exit at 10148 for 27 pips.
We also had a long on Cable that got into 12 pips profit, but it did not move up when the Euro and EJ trade did so i closed it for a couple of pips profit as i thought it had further to go down, and it did, so its a good job i decided to close it when i did.
Cable looks like it has bottomed out now though so we should see a move up tomorrow, to take back some of the large move down. Longer term i am pretty bearish on Cable as it still has a long way to go down in my opinion.
We should see some decent trading tomorrow as the US will be back in the market, so hopefully we will get a couple of nice trades at least. Happy trading. 🙂 TFT7K9C4MJY5