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Tag Archives: dollar

Weekend Trading Update. Euro Yen Rallies 230 Pips.

Euro Yen Rally
Euro Yen rallied 230 pips on Friday after after a G7 official said that a statement about excessive weakness in the Yen was miss interpreted. The statement was meant to express concern about excessive movements in the Japanese yen, but was interpreted as concern about Yen weakness, which initially saw the Yen strengthen. When the comments were re run with the correct interpretation stressed, we saw Yen weakness return to the market.

The move was very quick, and i don’t chase trades so we did not get in on the move. We did take Euro Dollar long though at 13310, which was helped along by the Yen news. This is typical of Euro Yen moves of late they do seem to drag Euro Dollar higher. Traders tend to see a rally in Euro Yen as a signal to buy Euro Dollar.

Ozzy Dollar was pretty flat on Thursday, but Friday was another pretty strong move down. We may see a retest of the 10225 area on Tuesday or Wednesday, but this depends on what happens tomorrow. The US are on holiday tomorrow so trading volumes are going to be down from the normal Monday volumes, so anything could happen.

Euro Dollar moved down on Thursday and took out the weekly lows, but popped back up on Friday on the back of the bullish Euro Yen move to end the week pretty much where it started.

Cable was moving sideways for most of Thursday and Friday, it moved enough for us to get a couple of nice little trades though.

Here is an update on all the Forex trades we took this week.

Monday was a bit of a funny day, the price action was not brilliant, and we did not get any particularly good set ups, so we took a few scalping trades. I am not going to list them but we took 4 trades for around 40 pips in total.

Tuesday was a much better day. We took AUD long at 10227 up to 10354 for 127 pips. I had been waiting for this trade for a couple of weeks, and i knew it was going to be a decent move up, so i held it overnight to get the full benefit of the move. We also took Cable long at 15575 up to 15640 for 65 pips.

Wednesday we had a nice price action set up on Euro. We took it short at 13506 down to 13468 for 38 pips. We also took the same trade again off 13485 down to 13440 for another 45 pips.

Thursday we took EJ long at 12382 up to 12407 for 25 pips. We also took Cable long at 15490 up to 15549 for 59 pips.

Friday we took Euro dollar long at 13310 up to 13350 for 40 pips. We also took Cable long at 15481 up to 15507 for 26 pips. We also took EJ short at 12519 down to 12475 for 44 pips.

Total trades 13. Total pips 509.

Trading Update – Euro Dollar Breaks 137. BNP Paribas Target 140.

Euro Dollar yesterday broke through the 137 level printing a high at 13710 and closing the session at down 70 pips at 13640. Yesterday BNP Paribas put a price target of 140 on Euro Dollar.

The Euro currency is very strong at the moment so we could see a test of that level in the coming weeks but i think in the longer term the Euro will weaken against the Dollar as the fed scale back on QE. Europe may also step in with a rate cut if Euro continues its upward trend as a strong Euro will hurt the recovery in Europe.

There was a rumor circulating yesterday that Goldman Sachs had closed its long position on Euro Dollar. If you read my post from the 12th Jan you will remember that they put a price target of 137 on Euro Dollar. Well according to rumors yesterday that position has been closed. A 70 pip drop from the highs could also back that up. I closed my Euro long at 96 so i missed the top by 14 pips but i went short at 13700 which more than made up for the 14 pips. 🙂

Cable made a decent rally this week, but more talk of a downgrade saw the price crash 180 pips yesterday. I had a price target on Cable to go short that unfortunately did not get hit, but we had a couple of decent trades on Cable this week so that’s OK.

Euro Yen continues to push higher which i think is contributing to the Euro Dollar rise, they seem to be feeding off each other at the moment. There was a crazy move on Euro Yen yesterday, the price pushed down 100 pips and then went back up 200 pips an hour later. You don’t see moves like that very often and it was clearly market manipulation, which caught a lot of short sellers out.

AUD USD pushed down this week but we did see a little recovery on Friday that we managed to get in on. My longer term view on AUD is bearish as the currency is still pretty high compared to where it usually trades, so it could go down quite a bit over the next few weeks. I have a longer term price target of 10225 on AUD, so a bit further to go down yet.

Please note: that my views on these pairs are purely my opinion based on the price action i can read on the charts. My views are not a recommendation to trade. What i do is far more complicated than just picking targets. You need to be fully conversant with my methods before you can trade these targets.

Trades for this week.

Sorry i did not give a midweek update this week but i have been really busy so did not have the time. I did not take as many trades this week as normal but i still had a good week.

Monday. Cable long at 15713 up to 15742 for 29 pips. AUD long at 10386 up to 10406 for 20 pips. EJ short at 12203 down to 12177 for 26 pips. EJ short at 12173 closed at 12184 for 11 pips loss.

Tuesday. Euro long at 13423 up to 13473 for 50 pips.

Wednesday. AUD long at 10404 up to 10428 for 24 pips.

Thursday. Cable short at 15833 down to 15813 for 20 pips.

Friday. Euro long at 13608 up to 13665 for 57 pips. Cable long at 15810 up to 15840 for 30 pips. AUD long at 10363 up to 10423 for 60 pips. Euro long at 13667 up to 13696 29 pips. Euro short at 13700 down to 13660 for 40 pips.

Total trades for the week 12. Total pips for the week 378. Not a great week for me pips wise but still good. One loser this week which does happen from time to time.

Goldman Sachs Says Buy Euro Dollar To 137.

The Euro Dollar rallied strongly yesterday on the back of a buy recommendation from Goldman Sachs, with a price target of 137. This buy recommendation came about an hour after a sell recommendation from another broker at 13270 targeting 12950. I cant remember who it was that made the sell recommendation but it played nicely into the hands of Goldman who i am sure were accumulating long positions on the back of it.

This is why i don’t trade news. You could have got caught out big time yesterday if you were shorting down to 12950.

Euro dollar has rallied significantly in the last 2 days so i am expecting a bit of a retrace late Monday or early Tuesday. We may take out yesterdays high on Monday before a retrace is seen though, so don’t go short until you have a clear reversal signal.

OK, trading update for the last 2 days.

Thursday we had 2 trades. First trade was Cable short at 16066 down to 16051 for 15 pips. We also had another Cable long trade at 16036 up to 16096 for 60 pips.

Yesterday we had 3 trades. First trade was Euro short at 13283 down to 13253 for 30 pips. Next trade was Cable long at 16109 up to 16151 for 42 pips. We then took Cable short at 16151 down to 16103 for 48 pips.

Update for the week as follows. 13 trades. 401 pips profit.

Nice start to the new year. 🙂

If you want to get your Forex trading year off to the best possible start, please see my Forex training course here.

Friday Trading. Dollar Weakness Sees Cable And Euro Rally.

Dollar weakened significantly yesterday which saw Euro and AUD rally, and Cable made a significant and aggressive move to the upside yesterday afternoon.

We took 4 trades yesterday first trade of the day was AUD short at 10415 down to 10395 for 20 pips.
Next trade was Cable long at 15930 up to 15875 for 45 pips. I would like to say that we held Cable all the way up to the highs but unfortunately that was not the case. The Cable move was completely out of the blue and was obviously bulled by stops getting hit. There was pretty low volume yesterday because of the holidays so the move up caught everyone out.

We did add a couple of short positions to Euro and Cable at the highs. We closed out one Euro trade for 9 pips profit, and a Cable trade for 12 pips profit.

We still have 2 trades that are being rolled over as they are slightly out of the money, but we should see them come back into a nice profit early next week. I may add to these positions on Monday if we get another move up, as i think the Euro and Cable are due a retrace next week.

Total trades for the week are 10, total profit 269 pips. Not as good as last week, but still OK. 🙂