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Tag Archives: market

Will The Fed Tolerate A Stronger USD For Longer? – Credit Agricole.

Given that US financial conditions have tightened of late, investors will also want to know if the Fed will tolerate further tightening (eg, USD appreciation). The Fed should deliver a 25bp rate hike but may keep its economic and policy outlook little changed, opting to wait for more economic data and details on the upcoming Trump stimulus. At the same time, Yellen may signal willingness to tolerate further tightening in US financial conditions in view of the latest rebound in US inflation expectations and given the resilience of risk sentiment at home and abroad.

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Given the latest USD underperformance, the bigger surprise for the FX markets could be indications that the Fed would tolerate higher UST yields and a stronger USD for longer, as well as any potential revisions to the 2018 dot-plot to reflect the recent drop in the unemployment rate below the Fed’s NAIRU.

This could help USD regain some lost ground vs commodity and risk-correlated G10 currencies if further tightening in global conditions starts eroding market risk sentiment. AUD could be vulnerable to potential disappointments from the upcoming data out of Australia and China. We keep open our short AUD/USD trade.*

The BoE, the SNB and the Norges Bank will also meet next week but should keep policy unchanged. That said, the MPC could see the latest disappointing UK data as confirmation of its cautious macro outlook and reiterate it will keep policy very accommodative in the face of surging cost–push inflation. This could keep the headwinds in place for GBP against USD. EUR/GBP could start consolidating after the recent sell-off following the Italian referendum and December ECB meeting.

Forex Volume Set To Rise. USD JPY To Stabilize – Credit Agricole.

Article Courtesy of Credit Agricole.

The views expressed in this article are the opinion of Credit Agricole FX market analysts. Please feel free to share.

The holiday season is in full swing and for some this may mean that markets will settle down as liquidity dries up in the coming weeks.

Our evidence suggests that Forex volume tends to go up in August, however, data releases and events can trigger renewed spikes of short-end vol across G10. It remains to be seen whether the combined effect of the multitude of idiosyncratic shocks will be sufficient to fuel a broader risk off move. Even so, we have added to our portfolio a long XAU/CHF trade as a risk-off hedge. Another interesting strategy is to identify cheap FX volatility to benefit from accentuated market moves on the back of event risks and thin market liquidity ahead.

Next week’s data calendar is laden with data releases like US non-farm payrolls, and events like the BoE Inflation report and the RBA policy meeting.

The BoE inflation report may struggle to exceed the dovish market expectations ahead of the August inflation report, and that could help GBP consolidate more broadly. We remain long GBP/CHF going into the release. Investors are looking for another solid US payroll and earnings data.

JPY should remain in the spotlight ahead of the announcement of Abe’s fiscal stimulus next week. We expect Japanese stocks to recover some more as a result and that should help USD/JPY stabilize.

Ahead of the RBA, markets see a greater than 50% chance of a rate cut. We also see a non negligible risk of policy action and stick to our tactical AUD/USD short. The FX options markets do not seem to be pricing in a significant scope for spot moves making AUD short-term gamma an interesting buy as well.

That said, we remain bulls on AUD/NZD over the longer-term, and expect the upcoming NZ unemployment and inflation expectations data to fuel rate cut expectations ahead of the August RBNZ meeting, and keep the cross supported. Potential disappointments from Chinese PMI data could keep both antipodean currencies under pressure against USD.

credit agricole

The Secret To Successful Forex Trading

What does the market do everyday?

If you think about it logically the market can do 3 things every day. It can go up, it can go down, it can go sideways, but it always does something. The market does not stay at the same price for 24 hours, its always moving, it never stays still, and if its moving, its moving for a reason, and if you understand why its moving, then there are opportunities to make money from those moves.

what does the market do every dayMost traders fail to understand why the market moves as it does.

They think price goes up because people are buying, they think price goes down because people are selling, and they think the market goes sideways because people are not buying or selling.

That can sometimes be the case, but its not always the case. Most traders react to what they see on the chart, if they see prices going up they buy. If they see prices going down they sell.

So why is it that 95% of traders lose money, if they are doing what the chart is telling them to do?

Why traders lose money in the market.

The reason most traders lose is because they buy when they should be selling, and they sell when they should be buying. The reason they lose is because they buy when prices go up, but because they don’t know why the price is going up, they don’t know how long to hold the trade for, when prices then reverse they get stopped out. The same applies if price is going down.

why do traders lose moneyHow much money would you be able to make if you knew why price was going up or down, and you knew how long you could hold your trade for to make maximum profit. Not because of buying or selling, but because of some other factor that’s making price move.

So you have had no success with buying or selling into a move, so you try to catch the bottom or the top of a move. Prices start going up, so you sell. Prices start going down so you buy. Prices keep going so you add to your losing trade, and prices still keep going. When you have been stopped out prices then reverse.

Why did you lose your money? For the same reason that you lost it before. Because you were buying when you should be have been selling, and you were selling when you should have been buying. Whether you are trend trading, or counter trend trading you need to know why prices are moving, and whether you should be buying or selling.

Its not just as simple as buyers or sellers. Prices move for many reasons, and you need to know that reason before you enter a trade, so you are on the right side of the move.

Understanding the Forex market.

understanding the forex marketI get a lot of calls from traders that think i have some sort of magic formula for trading the markets. A holy grail, or a guaranteed method for Forex trading success. Well guys i have to confess that i don’t have such a thing, as such a thing does not exist. No one knows with a 100% confidence what will happen next in the Forex market. But if you fully understand what is making prices move, and take high probability trades based on that understanding, then you can be a successful trader.

I am not the master of the market, or a Forex trading guru, and i cannot promise you untold riches by enrolling on my training and mentoring program, but what i can promise you is that i will teach you what you need to know in order for you to be successful, and if you devote the time required to learn what i teach, then you will be a consistently profitable trader.

Embrace new ideas and beliefs.

How i trade, and what i teach is very unlike what you may have come across before, and it can take some traders longer than others to fully embrace what i teach, and adapt their trading strategies accordingly. It can be a struggle for some traders to get in the mindset of how a professional Forex trader thinks, and how he trades.

the truth about ForexIf you have been trading for a number of years and losing money all that time, it can be hard to let go of your learned behavior, and look at the market in a different way. Some traders however, will see my stuff as a light bulb moment in their trading journey, and my teachings will literally transform their trading overnight.

So to any prospective students reading this, if you are considering coming on board with me, please have an open mind, and be prepared to embrace new ideas and thought processes about how the market works. What i have to say will turn your understanding of the market on its head, so be prepared for some shocking revelations.

Use your understanding to trade with confidence.

I trade Forex with confidence and an unrivaled understanding of the forces that drive the market. My entries and exits in the market are based on high probability reversal points.

trade with confidenceSome of my entries and exits are so precise, that it does sometimes seem like the market is dancing to my tune, which has prompted some of my students to ask me if i have a contact on the inside, someone feeding me information on where to enter and exit the market. 🙂

It does sometimes look that way, but i can assure you i do not have a contact on the inside, and there is no slight of hand involved.

Everything i trade and teach is based in what the chart is telling me to do. I am not going to go into detail about how i trade, and how i teach, but its all based on market knowledge. All the information you need to do what i do is contained within the chart.

Don’t waste time and effort with free education.

free forex educationThere are many Forex training companies, or individuals that will give away free information, or make videos of how you should trade the market. There are 1000’s of free videos on You Tube that you can spend years trawling through. I respect those people for taking the time to put together training videos to help people learn how to trade Forex. But the sad fact is they are a waste of your time and effort.

You have heard of the saying you don’t get something for nothing, well its true 99% of the time. You can spend a few years going through all this stuff on You Tube, and don’t get me wrong, its entertaining stuff, and you will learn a lot of the basics, but as far as making money goes, there will be very little in there that will help you in that regard.

The secret to successful Forex trading.

I am going to give you something now that will help you in your journey to becoming a profitable trader. This is a very important part of what i do, and in my opinion is the real secret to successful Forex trading.

the secret to forex trading successMost people think the Forex market is random, but its not. I have been in this business long enough to know that no matter how random it looks, its not random. The market is very structured. The same things happen, time and time again in the market, and when you understand the market as i do, you can easily pick up on these recurring events, and use them to make a profit from the market.

This is what i teach you in my training course. I teach you to recognise the recurring events in the market, and how to profit from them. And i am not talking about chart patterns, like head and shoulders. Although head and shoulders are a very good pattern, if you know how to trade them correctly.

I am not talking about buying and selling at trend lines, or support and resistance levels. I am not talking about Elliot Wave, or Harmonics, or Moving Averages, or MACD or Bollinger Bands or any other indicator that you can find to give you trade signals. What i am talking about here are the guaranteed moves in the market that happen every day.

Use what you know about the market to make money.

what-do-you-knowThis may seem like a strange statement, but try and think about what i have just said.

Use what you know about the market to make money. Think about what you know about the market, and what makes price move. What do you really know, with the highest probability? Work out what you are most confident about, and trade based on that.

If you are unsure about how price is going to move then don’t trade. You need to focus on probability to be successful. Be proactive in your trading not reactive. Analise the market for probability, and trade when the probability of a successful trade is most in your favor.

Thanks for visiting my site, and have a great day. 🙂

Weekend Trading Update. Great Week Of Training This Week.

GreGreat Week Of Training This WeekMorning all. This week has been a very busy week for me training wise, and i have not had that much time to focus on trading myself. I have taken a few trades, but not as many as i normally would. I did have a loser this week for -37 pips, but i still came out of the week with my 100 pips target intact. 🙂

Although i have not made that much money this week i am very happy with what i have accomplished. My new students are doing very well and are starting to see, and trade the high probability set ups that i am teaching them.

If you are a regular follower of my blog you will know that i have not been teaching for that long, but teaching is going to be a major part of what i do, and i get so much more out of that side of the business than i get out of trading. Trading is great, and i love it, but its a really good feeling when you are teaching traders how to trade profitably. Traders that have been trading Forex for a number of years and losing money, that are now understanding how the market works, and how to profit from it, and they are realizing that they no longer have to give their money to their brokers, and their days of losing money in the market will soon be over. Traders that have always dreamed of becoming profitable are now closer to their dreams and its all because of your training. It don’t get much better than that i can tell you. Can i just say thanks to the guys who have been giving me some great feedback this week, i really appreciate it, and i am looking forward to next week. 🙂

OK here are the trades i took this week.

Monday i had a great set up on Euro Dollar, but i had lost my news feed so i did not take the trade. I don’t trade the news but i like to listen to it to give me an idea of whats going on in the market. After that trade i did not get any other set ups. I think it was bank holiday in Europe so it was pretty quiet.

Tuesday, was not a great day. I entered Cable long at a key reversal level but price took another 4 hours before it reversed. It was one of those slow grinding moves lower that do not give you any opportunity to get out of the trade. Normally you will get some sort of pullback to enable you to get out, but on this move it just kept going. I decided to call the trade in at -37 pips. It went down another 10 pips before it reversed very aggressively, as i expected it to do when i got into the trade. It was an unusual move, and i should have waited for a better entry signal, but when you are trading off reversal levels you have to make the call to either enter at the bottom or wait for the reversal to start. I decided to enter at the bottom, but it was not the bottom unfortunately. 🙁

Wednesday i took Euro long for +30. I also took Dollar Cad short for +20.

Thursday i took one trade late on, on EJ long for 38 pips. I love trading EJ as you can get your pips really quickly.

Friday i took 2 trades very late in the day. I had a few hours off on Friday, and took my wife out for lunch. I was waiting for some key reversal levels to set up, and they came into play at after the UK session had closed. I don’t normally take trades at that time on a Friday, but i had been waiting for these trades since Thursday morning so i decided i was not going to miss the opportunity. I took EJ long for 39 pips and AJ long for 37 pips, which was a great bonus for the week.

Total trades for the week 6. 5 winners 1 loser. 127 pips profit.

I currently have one spot left for one to one training. When that has been taken its going to be 2 months before i can take on any more students. If you wish to take the spot please ring me on 07939 42 7000.