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Tag Archives: strategies

High Probability Forex Trading Strategies.

high probability forex trading strategiesOk, lets talk about high probability Forex trading strategies, and how they can improve your trading. Taking trades based on high probability set ups, will take your trading to a new level of success, and turn you from a Forex loser into a Forex winner.

High probability trading is about being able to predict the outcome of your trade to such a degree, that the odds of a successful outcome, far outweigh the odds of an unsuccessful one.

I am a high probability trader. On a good day i will take 4 or 5 trades, on a bad day i will take none. Now if you ask the average Forex trader what a good day and a bad day means to them, you will probably hear something like this. A good day would consist of taking around 20 trades, with 12 winners and 8 losers. A bad day would be taking around 15 trades with 12 losers and 3 winners. I did not take any trades today. That was a bad day for me, as i did not make any money. I did not lose any, but i did not make any. A bad day for me, is not about how much i lost today, its about how much i did not make today.

Its very rare that i lose money in the markets. If i do have a losing trade, and i do get them, there will usually be at least one or two more opportunities that day for me to close the day in profit. How do do it? Why do i get so many winners, and so few losers? Its very simple, i only take the trades that i know will be successful. Ok so know one can predict the future to the point where a successful trade is guaranteed i know, as major market moving news could be released, or a world war could break out. But baring major market moving news, the outcome of the trade is going to be successful with the highest probability possible. I only trade when the odds are stacked significantly in my favor.

high probability forex tradingSo how do you identify high probability Forex trading strategies? I am not going to go into detail about what i do and how i trade, as that is for my Forex training course, but what i will say is you need to understand the rules of the game. If you can imagine Forex trading as a game with 10 players, and each player has a belief about what is going to happen to the price, some traders think it will go up, and some traders think it will go down. Each trader will trade either up or down on the basis of what they believe the price will do next. If 9 traders think the price will go down and they sell the market, the chances are the price will go down. So if 9 out of 10 traders are selling, why would you want to buy?

The object of the game is to identify who is buying, and who is selling, and why. This is what i do very successfully. By knowing with the highest probability who is buying and who is selling, i can predict the future direction of price. Once i have worked out where the price is going, i just need to enter the trade either long or short, at the best possible entry price. This is what i do every day, and this is what i teach people to do. Once you have established the direction of price, then you just need to get into the move at the best possible level. I am not talking about trend trading, or chasing after a train that has left the station, i am talking about getting into a move before the move has even started. That is what i define as high probability trading.

If you wish to learn more about my high probability Forex trading strategies, please drop me an email or give me a call. Happy trading. 🙂

Understanding Forex Trading – Learn Price Action

Forex trading is a big mystery to a lot of people, even Forex traders that have been trading for years struggle to understand price action, and how to profit from it.

So what do you need to know to be successful in Forex and consistently make money? The answer is very simple. You need to be able to read price action on a chart. All the information you will ever need, to enable you to be successful in Forex trading, is contained within the chart. Let me just say that again in case you missed it. All the information you will ever need, to enable you to be successful in Forex trading, is contained within the chart.

I cannot stress this enough. Forget about fundamentals, and news, and market sentiment, and what they are saying on CNBC, its all irrelevant. The only thing you need to be able to do, to be successful in Forex, is to be able to read price action on a chart. The chart will tell you where to enter, the chart will tell you where to put your stop loss, and the chart will tell you where to exit, and that is all you need to know.

Despite what a lot of traders say a Forex chart is not a random pattern generator. Forex trading has a very structured format.

Have you ever looked at one of those magic eye pictures like the one on the left. Somewhere in that picture there is a duck, some people can see it some people cant. A Forex chart is very much like that. There is a picture in there somewhere, you just have to know where to look.

Now you can spend weeks, months, years, staring at a chart, or a magic eye picture and trying to see through all the confusion, or you can take the quick route and get someone to show you how to do it. Now if you think back to the moment when you first saw the empire state building, or the statue of liberty, or whatever it was in the magic eye picture, how easy was it to look at any other magic eye picture and see the image within. A Forex chart is just the same. When you know what you are looking for, you can apply the same skill to any chart, and see what is really hiding within it.

When you are skilled at reading a chart you will be able to see the structure of it, and profit from the fact that you know what is going to happen next. Well that’s not 100% true, you cant know exactly what is going to happen next, but you can predict with the highest probability what is going to happen next, and trading Forex successfully is all about high probability trading.

This is what i do, and this is what i teach. I look for, and enter, high probability trades, and i teach my students to look for, and enter the same high probability trades. I don’t trade for fun, or because i am bored, i trade to make money, and the way i make money is by knowing what is going to happen to the price with the highest probability possible, and then by waiting for the optimum time to enter the trade. I then manage the trade, and take my profit when the chart tells me to take it. Its a pretty simple formula, but it takes chart knowledge to make it work successfully.

If you want to be a successful Forex trader, and learn my high probability Forex trading strategies, please consider my Forex training and mentoring program here.

Yesterdays Trading. 2 Trades, 62 Pips Profit.

2 trades yesterday for 62 pips profit.

The first trade of the day was EJ long at 10283 up to 10319 for 36 pips.

Second trade was AUD short at 10384 down to 10358 for 26 pips.

I was a bit of a funny day yesterday, up and down in a pretty tight range, so trading was a bit hit and miss. Any new traders that were trading yesterday would have got killed for sure.

This week the pairs have been ranging a bit more than of late, which is good for us, as we don’t like trading when the markets are going sideways, its very dangerous.

Some good numbers out of the UK on Thursday saw Cable spike up 60 odd pips. It retraced some of that move yesterday, but it finished the day quite strong, so we may have a gap up on Sunday nite open.

Euro had been moving down the last few days but finished the week quite strong. EJ had a bit of a sell off on Thursday and Friday but recovered a bit of ground yesterday afternoon. AUD does not seen to know where its going at the moment.

We have had a successful week though. 271 pips profit for the week.

I have just taken on a new student that wants to learn price action trading on the larger time frames daily and weekly charts. So that will be a nice change for me, as i am normally teaching day trading strategies.

Anyway, have a great weekend all. I will update you on trading next week. 🙂

Day Trading Verses Trading Daily And Weekly Charts

Day trading verses trading daily and weekly charts.

Some traders have different ideas on what day trading Forex is. I qualify day trading as trading anything less than a daily chart.

If you are trading 4 hour charts, 1 hour charts, 15 min charts or less, then you are day trading.

I am a day trader most of the time, but i can, and do trade longer time frames. The set ups that i use are better suited to day trading, but do work very well on the longer time frames.

The main benefit of trading longer time frames, daily and weekly charts is time. You can spend an hour or so every day analyzing the charts and set up your trades in advance. This style of trading is very good if you are in full time employment, or have other business commitments, or you just want more time to enjoy your life.

Day trading requires you to be at the PC for most of the day, looking for trading opportunities and set ups. Day trading is more exiting, but can also be more stressful. How you decide to trade is entirely up to you and each style can be equally rewarding.

This may come as a shock to some people, but the charts work the same way in every time frame from the 1 min chart right up to the monthly chart. Some trading strategies only work on certain time frames, but a good trading strategy should work equally well on any time frame. The smaller time frames are more volatile and set ups can be less reliable. You are also more likely to be stopped out of a trade if some price sensitive news comes out, but your stops are tighter on the smaller time frames, so you are protected to a certain extent.

I personally don’t trade anything less than the 15 min chart. I occasionally use the 5 min chart to manage a trade, or to get a better entry on a trade, but as far as set ups go its more likely that i will be trading 15 min, up to 4 hour time frames.

I like to trade everyday and if you are trading the longer time frames you sometimes have to wait for a few days sometimes a week or so before you get a good set up. I enjoy trading very much, and if i had to wait for a week for a trade it would drive me crazy, but each to their own. 🙂

If you are new to trading you have to decide what type of trader you want to be. Do you have the time required to sit in front of the PC and day trade, or do you prefer to take a couple of trades per week and have more free time? You can do both of course.

I teach people to trade any time frame so it makes no difference to me what type of trader you want to be, i can teach you either or.

For more information on my Forex training and mentoring program please click on the link.