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Tag Archives: trade

Will The Fed Tolerate A Stronger USD For Longer? – Credit Agricole.

Given that US financial conditions have tightened of late, investors will also want to know if the Fed will tolerate further tightening (eg, USD appreciation). The Fed should deliver a 25bp rate hike but may keep its economic and policy outlook little changed, opting to wait for more economic data and details on the upcoming Trump stimulus. At the same time, Yellen may signal willingness to tolerate further tightening in US financial conditions in view of the latest rebound in US inflation expectations and given the resilience of risk sentiment at home and abroad.


Given the latest USD underperformance, the bigger surprise for the FX markets could be indications that the Fed would tolerate higher UST yields and a stronger USD for longer, as well as any potential revisions to the 2018 dot-plot to reflect the recent drop in the unemployment rate below the Fed’s NAIRU.

This could help USD regain some lost ground vs commodity and risk-correlated G10 currencies if further tightening in global conditions starts eroding market risk sentiment. AUD could be vulnerable to potential disappointments from the upcoming data out of Australia and China. We keep open our short AUD/USD trade.*

The BoE, the SNB and the Norges Bank will also meet next week but should keep policy unchanged. That said, the MPC could see the latest disappointing UK data as confirmation of its cautious macro outlook and reiterate it will keep policy very accommodative in the face of surging cost–push inflation. This could keep the headwinds in place for GBP against USD. EUR/GBP could start consolidating after the recent sell-off following the Italian referendum and December ECB meeting.

Making Money While You Sleep.

Making Money While You SleepI had a couple of nice trades this week that i entered a bit late in the day, so i had to set my profit target and go to bed. I don’t normally let trades run overnight, but i do enjoy making money while i sleep.

Its nice to get up and open the charts to see your profit target hit, and a nice chunk of money in your trading account to start the day off.

The last couple of weeks i have been testing out a new broker, so i have been taking a lot of more trades than i would normally take, to see how they perform. I am quite happy with the results so far. The commission on the new broker is almost half of what i am currently paying, and that equates to a lot of money over the course of a month.

I will test them out for another couple of weeks, and then offer my students the option of moving their accounts over to them too. I am in the process of negotiating a deal with the new broker to see if they can offer us some financial incentives if we all move over. The deal i am currently getting is very good, but if they can offer us something more by trading as a group, then that’s a bonus.

I am also in the process of setting up managed Forex trading accounts with this new broker, where i will be able to trade clients money by copying the trades i take through my own trading account, direct to clients trading accounts. More information on my managed Forex trading service can be found here

I have been approached by a number of clients in the past to offer this managed account service, so if the demand is there, then why not. Its not really that much extra work to offer the managed service, so it will not impinge on my current activities too much.

I have a new student starting this week from Canada, so i am looking forward to that. My current guys are doing well, and i have a few more interested parties, so everything is ticking along nicely at the moment. I am hoping to take a holiday sometime in the next couple of months, so i am looking forward to that too.

That’s all for now folks. If you are trading this week, keep your stops nice and tight. Thanks for visiting my blog, and have a great trading week. 🙂

Weekend Trading Update. Its Been A Quiet Week Trading This Week.

Its Been A Quiet Week Trading This WeekThis week has not been a great week of trading for me. Its the first week back from my holiday and the trading opportunities have been few and far between. I have also been busy with teaching this week so i generally take less trades when i am teaching as i do not trade and teach at the same time.

I also like to take it easy on the first week back from holiday, as i have missed 2 weeks of news. Now although i don’t trade the news, the news helps me get a feel for how the pairs are going to react, and what news is expected by the market, and how it can affect the price.

Monday was a bank holiday, so trading volumes were low and i did not get any high probability set ups, so i did not take a trade on Monday.

Tuesday was OK, i took 2 trades for a total of 48 pips. I took Euro short at 13126 down to 13101 for 25 pips. I also took EJ short at 13034 down to 13011 for 23 pips.

Wednesday was a little better. 2 trades again for 54 pips. I took Euro short at 13127 down to 13107 for 20 pips. I also took Cable short at 15586 down to 15552 for 34 pips.

Thursday i took 3 trades for 63 pips. I took EJ long at 12981 up to 12997 for 16 pips. I also took Dollar Cad long at 10016 up to 10037 for 21 pips. I also took Cable short at 15580 to 15554 for 26 pips.

i took 2 trades for 39 pips. I took Euro Dollar short at 13010 down to 13001 for 9 pips. I also took a nice trade on AUD long at 9980 up to 10010 for 30 pips.

Total trades for the week 9. Total pips 204.

Trading Update For This Week, Including 2 Live Recorded Trades.

Trading Update For This Week, Including 2 Live Recorded TradesThis is the last trading update for a couple of weeks as i am away on holiday.

Its a short week this week as i have only taken one trade today, and will not be trading tomorrow as i will be traveling. I still managed to get over 200 pips for the week though, so its not too bad considering.

Here is the update.

Monday i took 2 trades for 43 pips total. I took Euro Dollar short at 13085 down to 13065 for 20 pips, and Dollar Cad short 10219 down to 10196 for 23 pips.

Tuesday was a bit better day, i took 3 trades for 84 pips in total. Euro Yen short at 12901 down to 12881 for 20 pips. Euro Dollar short at 13144 down to 13120 for 24 pips. And Euro Yen short again at 12898 down to 12858 for 40 pips. I recorded the Euro Dollar short trade, the recording can be seen here.

Yesterday was OK, with 3 trades for 54 pips. I took Euro long at 13117 up to 13137 for 20 pips. I took cable long at 15224 up to 15236 for 12 pips. And i took Euro long at 13037 up to 13059 for 22 pips. This trade was also recorded, and the recording can be seen here.

Today i only managed one trade as i have been busy with packing and stuff for my holiday. The trade was Euro dollar long at 13046 up to 13072 for 26 pips.

Total trades for the week 9. Total pips 207.

I am now on holiday until the 1st of May. I will be answering emails and phone calls, but i will not be trading.

Have a great couple of weeks folks, and if you are trading the markets take care. I will catch up with you all when i get back. 🙂