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Tag Archives: trading

Weekend Update. Non Farm Payroll Numbers See Dollar Strengthen.

non farm payroll numbersBetter than expected non farm payroll numbers out of the US saw Dollar strengthen today, which saw Cable hit fresh lows and Euro Dollar drop 150 pips in 45 minutes.

This week has been a tough week to be honest, the price action has been pretty poor and big moves on the back of news has made it difficult to trade this week.

Monday was a pretty poor day, the pairs were moving in a pretty tight range, so pips were hard to come by. We did take one trade though. The trade was a long trade on Cable at 15040 up to 15070 for 30 pips.

Tuesday was a much better day. We took 4 trades for a total of 113 pips. All the trades were on Cable. We took it long at 15116 up to 15139 for 23 pips. We took it short at 15194 down to 15154 for 40 pips. We took it short again at 15128 down to 15098 for 30 pips. And then long again 15095 up to 15115 for 20 pips.

Wednesday we took 2 trades. Cable short at 15097 down to 15067 for 30 pips. We also took Euro long at 12966 up to 12980 for 14 pips.

Thursday we took 1 trade. Cable long at 15000 up to 15066 for 66 pips.

Today we took 3 trades for a total of 121 pips. Euro long at 13196 up to 13224 for 28 pips. This was before the non farm payroll numbers. We also took it long again after the NFP at 12966 up to 13004 for 38 pips. The price came back down again to test the low, so we took it long again at 12959 up to 13014 for 55 pips.

Total trades for the week 11. Total pips 374.

Not a great week compared to recent weeks, but 100 pips per week is my target, so we have far exceeded that target again. 🙂

Weekend Update. Weak Manufacturing Data From The UK. Cable Tests 150 Level.

Weak Manufacturing Data From The UKCable took another leg lower yesterday after weak UK manufacturing data and mortgage approvals saw it test the 15000 level. The last time Cable had been at that level was in July 2010.

Analysts at BNP Paribas expect the BoE to announce GBP 25bln in QE next week, citing the weak Manufacturing PMI data. So new lows could be seen next week.

I am not a news trader so its irrelevant to me what market moving news comes out, as long as i am not in a trade when the news comes out that is. I have a really good news feed though, so i am usually well aware of what market moving news is coming out.

Euro Dollar made a test of the 130 level yesterday which as a bit of a surprise as better than expected LTRO repayments came out that should have seen it go higher, but i think the Italy election problem is weighing heavy on the Euro at the moment. So we could see further downside until that is resolved. I don’t think Euro will go much lower initially though, as the new trading range is supposed to be 130 to 140. I personally think the range is more like 125 to 135, and as the US scale back on QE we could see 125 on Euro Dollar easily.

I took a hit on a Euro long trade yesterday which was a bit of a surprise. I saw a nice little set up to the long side which i took. We also had the better than expected LTRO repayments out which should have added a bit more weight to my position, but it did not work out and i got stopped out. I knew exactly why the trade failed though, and there was nothing i could have done about it, but i have had another good week overall.

Ozzy Dollar made another test on Wednesdays low yesterday after a massive spike on Thursday in the Asian session. I managed to get 20 pips out of AUD yesterday which was pretty good considering its trading range. We are coming up on a key level on AUD at 10150 so we should see it test that level sometime next week.

Euro Yen was trading sideways for most of the week, so not a lot to say about that one really. We did take it short on Monday for 110 pips, but apart from that we have not had a trade on EJ this week.

Here is the weekly update.

Monday was a great day. Mondays can be pretty quiet but not this week, we took 215 pips off 3 trades on Monday. We took Euro short at 13310 down to 13235 for 75 pips. We also took Euro long at 13192 up to 13222 for 30 pips. We also took EJ short at 12500 down to 12390 for 110 pips. EJ moved over 500 pips down on Monday so if we had held the trade we could have taken 500, but hindsight is a wonderful thing. 🙂

Tuesday we took 3 trades for 120 pips. We took Cable long at 15154 up to 15214 for 60 pips. We also took Euro long at 10339 up to 10379 for 40 pips. We also took AUD long at 10201 up to 10221 for 20 pips.

Wednesday we took 2 trades for 135 pips. We took Cable long at 15090 up to 15160 for 70 pips. We also took Euro long at 13075 up to 13140 for 65 pips.

Thursday we took 2 trades for 102 pips. We took Cable short at 15202 down to 15155 for 47 pips. We also took Cable long at 15155 up to 15210 for 55 pips.

Friday we took 3 trades. We took Euro long at 13025 which we got stopped out of for 22 pips. We also took Cable long at 14999 up to 15040 for 41 pips. We also took AUD long at 10187 up to 10207 for 20 pips.

Total trades 13. 12 winners and 1 loser. Total pips 611.

Weekend Trading Update. UK Credit Rating Downgrade Sees Cable Tumble.

Hi guys, sorry we had no midweek update this week, but i have been too busy to post one. Anyway here is the weekend trading update. We have had some great price action trading this week, which has given us some great pips.

Cable fell almost 100 pips last night after a downgrade from credit rating agency Moodys. The downgrade is the first in 30 years and sees the UK lose its triple A credit rating. The downgrade means that the UK will have to pay more interest on its borrowing, which will add a bit more to its debt pile, and they may need to do more QE.

We could see cable fall a bit more on Monday, but i think we will see Cable recover from its lows next week, as the downgrade fears are now out of the way, and traders love a bargain, so i think we could see a nice rally on Cable in the coming weeks.

The low for the week on Cable was 15130. I had a price target of 15135 as a long entry, which i took on Thursday. We had a nice rally off that level and we managed to get 134 pips from that trade.

Ozzy Dollar revisited my 10225 level on Thursday. I did say last week that it would revisit that area on Tuesday or Wednesday this week. It almost hit on Wednesday, but finally hit Thursday, so i was a day out. 🙂

We took a nice trade off the 10360 level all the way down to 10262 for 102 pips. I did consider holding the trade overnight for a revisit my 10225 level, but i don’t like holding AUD shorts overnight, as the swap is a killer.

Euro Dollar had been consolidating for most of last week in preparation for this move down, which we traded very successfully. The price hit my short target at 13429 and we took the move down to 13283 for 146 pips. I had been waiting for this move for over a week, and the extended consolidation told me that it would be a pretty decent move. The price typically pushed up from consolidation before moving down very strongly. I did make comment predicting this Euro move on Forex live.

Euro Yen also moved down along with Euro this week, which is no surprise. It was in consolidation yesterday though as was the Euro. We took one small trade on Euro Yen yesterday for 30 pips.

Here is an update on all the trades we took this week.

Monday we took 2 trades on Cable, both short, one at 15475 down to 15440 for 35 pips. We also took it again at 15450 down to 15484 for 34 pips.

Tuesday we took Cable short again at 15484 down to 15424 for 60 pips.

Wednesday was the start of our week really. First trade was Euro Dollar short at 13429 down to 13283 for 146 pips. We also took AUD at 10360 down to 10262 for 102 pips.

Thursday was a pretty crazy day, we took quite a few trades on Thursday. We took Cable long at 15135 up to 15269 for 134 pips. We also took AUD long at 10226 up to 10260 for 34 pips, we also took it again at 10235 up to 10255 for 20 pips. We also took Euro long at 13174 up to 13224 for 50 pips. We also took it short at 13230 back down to 13174 for another 56 pips.

Friday was a quiet day. We took 2 trades one trade which was Euro Yen short at 12349 down to 12319 for 30 pips. The other one was a losing trade on Cable long, which we got hit for 24 pips. It was a silly trade really, and i should not have taken it, but i got greedy. I had been having a very good week, and thought i was invincible. It was not a high probability trade, and i got my ass kicked. It happens sometimes when you are on a roll, you lose a bit of focus and you need a loser to re focus your mind. It worked anyway, i am totally Focused for Monday. 🙂

Total trades for the week 12. Total pips 677.

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Weekend Trading Update. Euro Yen Rallies 230 Pips.

Euro Yen Rally
Euro Yen rallied 230 pips on Friday after after a G7 official said that a statement about excessive weakness in the Yen was miss interpreted. The statement was meant to express concern about excessive movements in the Japanese yen, but was interpreted as concern about Yen weakness, which initially saw the Yen strengthen. When the comments were re run with the correct interpretation stressed, we saw Yen weakness return to the market.

The move was very quick, and i don’t chase trades so we did not get in on the move. We did take Euro Dollar long though at 13310, which was helped along by the Yen news. This is typical of Euro Yen moves of late they do seem to drag Euro Dollar higher. Traders tend to see a rally in Euro Yen as a signal to buy Euro Dollar.

Ozzy Dollar was pretty flat on Thursday, but Friday was another pretty strong move down. We may see a retest of the 10225 area on Tuesday or Wednesday, but this depends on what happens tomorrow. The US are on holiday tomorrow so trading volumes are going to be down from the normal Monday volumes, so anything could happen.

Euro Dollar moved down on Thursday and took out the weekly lows, but popped back up on Friday on the back of the bullish Euro Yen move to end the week pretty much where it started.

Cable was moving sideways for most of Thursday and Friday, it moved enough for us to get a couple of nice little trades though.

Here is an update on all the Forex trades we took this week.

Monday was a bit of a funny day, the price action was not brilliant, and we did not get any particularly good set ups, so we took a few scalping trades. I am not going to list them but we took 4 trades for around 40 pips in total.

Tuesday was a much better day. We took AUD long at 10227 up to 10354 for 127 pips. I had been waiting for this trade for a couple of weeks, and i knew it was going to be a decent move up, so i held it overnight to get the full benefit of the move. We also took Cable long at 15575 up to 15640 for 65 pips.

Wednesday we had a nice price action set up on Euro. We took it short at 13506 down to 13468 for 38 pips. We also took the same trade again off 13485 down to 13440 for another 45 pips.

Thursday we took EJ long at 12382 up to 12407 for 25 pips. We also took Cable long at 15490 up to 15549 for 59 pips.

Friday we took Euro dollar long at 13310 up to 13350 for 40 pips. We also took Cable long at 15481 up to 15507 for 26 pips. We also took EJ short at 12519 down to 12475 for 44 pips.

Total trades 13. Total pips 509.