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Weekend Update. Draghi Press Conference Sees Euro Crash 200 Pips.

Euro Dollar

Mario Draghi held a pretty bearish press conference on Thursday which saw the Euro crash 200 pips. Draghi press conferences are generally upbeat which more often than not sees the Euro rally, but he was more realistic in his comments which made traders realize that the Euro problems are still a long way from fixed.

It was a complete turnaround from the start of the week when everyone was talking about a move up to 140, now everyone is talking about a move down to 130. It really annoys me that these so called experts can change their mind like the wind an no one seems to care what they said yesterday.

This is why i do not trade news or fundamentals, its so hit and miss. Monday and Wednesday you could have been adding to your Euro longs for the move up to 140 and Thursday you would have been wiped out, and are now looking for shorts. Until some expert comes out and says its going to 140 again. Technical trading is a far more reliable way to trade in my opinion. Just trade what you see not what you hear. Its a sad fact but the Forex markets are so manipulated these days and the manipulation is at the highest level.

Euro Yen

We saw a 300 pip move down on Euro Yen on Thursday after the Draghi press conference. This move was compounded on Friday by Japan’s finance minister ASO who said the pace of JPY weakening has been too fast. A Japanese ministry of finance official then added 15 mins later that ASO meant to say JPY fall was fast paced and not unexpected.

Cable

Cable rallied strongly on Thursday and Friday after a press conference by incoming governor of the bank of England Mark Carney who said that the UK should do more to support the recovery, and when pressed to say whether more quantitative easing would have the desired effect, the incoming governor said, matter-of-factly, that Bank of Canada research had concluded the policy was having diminishing returns, especially in the US. So he is not a big fan of QE which if stopped will see Cable much higher than it is now.

AUD

AUD rallied strongly on Friday after a bit of profit taking from the move down this week. It did not hit my long entry target but i am sure it will get there next week at some point. I did have an interim long entry target at 12051 which missed by a pip or two which was unfortunate. If i was awake i would probably have taken the trade long, but it happened in the Asian session and i was sound asleep. 🙂

OK here is the trading update.

Thursday we took EJ short at 12744 down to 12700 for 44 pips.
Friday we took USD JPY long 9220 up to 9260 for 40 pips. We also took Cable short at 15805 down to 15885 for 20 pips. We also too Euro long at 13365 up to 134 for 35 pips.

Update for the week. 9 trades, 356 pips profit.

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